By Ingrid Hamm, Helmut Seitz, Martin Werding
This publication presents an updated precis of the implications of demographic getting older for exertions markets, monetary markets, financial progress, social safeguard schemes and public funds in Germany, basically reflecting the current country of data in any of those components. All contributions are written via top specialists of their fields and are in response to effects that emerge on the vanguard of present study.
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Extra info for Demographic Change in Germany: The Economic and Fiscal Consequences
Jahrhundert. Institut für Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik (IBS) der Universität Bielefeld, Bielefeld Bomsdorf E (2005) Höhere Fertilität, steigendes Rentenzugangsalter und Migration – Wie die zukünftige Belastung der Gesellschaft in Deutschland erträglich gestaltet werden kann. Deutsche Rentenversicherung 60:439–459 Bucher H (1998) Geburtenentwicklung in West- und Ostdeutschland nach der Wende. In: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Bevölkerungswissenschaft (ed): Geburtententwicklung nach der Wende.
4 years at average in 2050. However, the effects of mortality are rather small compared with variations of fertility, as Mai already showed for the results of the 10th coordinated population projection (Mai 2005). 3 we have highlighted the unstable migration pattern over the last fifty years. Thus the estimation of future trends in international migration seems to be the least predictable aspect of population projections. Usually population projections come in several variants to illustrate the 18 Charlotte Höhn, Ralf Mai, Frank Micheel degree of uncertainty about the dimension of international migration.
It should be noted that immigration (international or internal) is more or less solely responsible for projected growth in these regions. However, this depends of course on the assumptions of the projection as well as on unforeseen circumstances in the future. Like population decline, demographic aging will spread around and become faster over time. Especially rural regions are expected to show rapid aging and increasing proportions of elderly. The same applies, to a smaller extent, to suburban regions, where the suburbanites of the 1950s and 1960s then enter old age.