By Toshihiko Hara
This is the publication to target a brand new phenomenon rising within the twenty-first century: the speedily getting older and lowering inhabitants of a well-developed state, specifically, Japan. The that means of this phenomenon has been effectively clarified because the attainable ancient end result of the demographic transition from excessive delivery and loss of life charges to low ones. Japan has entered the post-demographic transitional part and may be the fastest-shrinking society on the earth, prime different Asian international locations which are experiencing an analogous drastic alterations. the writer used the historic information, compiled through the Statistic Bureau, Ministry of inner Affairs and Communications in 2006 and inhabitants projections for published in 2012 by means of the nationwide Institute of inhabitants and Social safeguard examine, to teach the prior and destiny improvement of the dependency ratio from 1891 to 2060. Then, using the inhabitants lifestyles desk and web copy expense, the results of accelerating existence expectancy and declining fertility at the dependency ratio have been saw individually. ultimately, the historic relationships between women’s survival premiums at reproductive age, the theoretical fertility price to take care of the alternative point and the recorded overall fertility expense (TFR) have been analyzed. old statement confirmed TFR adapting to the theoretical point of fertility with a definite time lag and akin to women’s survival premiums at reproductive age. Women’s expanding lifespan and survival premiums may have prompted choice making to lessen the chance of childbearing. whether the theoretical fertility expense meets the alternative point, women’s perspectives of minimizing the danger could stay unchanged simply because for girls the cost–benefit imbalance in childbearing continues to be too excessive in Japan. according to the findings, the writer discusses the sustainability of eastern society with regards to nationwide funds, social protection reform, kinfolk guidelines, immigration regulations and group polices.
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Additional resources for A Shrinking Society: Post-Demographic Transition in Japan
Even though there is such a reform in pension system, the reliance on system is not high in public opinions. ” It is clear that many Japanese do not trust the pension system (Asahi Shinbun 4th October 2013). The medical care cost is also expanding in proportion to an increase in elder population. Towards this, the health care insurance system has been reviewed and reformed too. Especially, in 2008, “late-stage medical care system” for the elderly was introduced. This system is designed for the people who are aged 75 or older.
The growing debts of the government are reducing the fiscal flexibility and narrowing the path to the economic growth. Concerning the rapid aging and the rising dependency ratio as main factors, it is too early to worry. The answer is redistribution policy enforce the effective demand of working population, who are going to raise the child population. The relation between increasing social security cost and rapid aging population is clear and obvious. The most important point is to minimize the total amount of social security benefits and the burden of the current workers.
The excess liquidity from JBGs has turn into speculative money games and destabilized the money market. Redistributing policies to enforce the effective demand of working population, who raise the child population is an important issue. Without any strong redistribution policies to increase income tax revenue, the outstanding of JGBs would continue to increase. It would expand the volume and the proportion of the national debt service in expenditure under the condition of increasing demographic dependency ratios.